Playing Prognosticator: Is it Shavkat time? Matchups to make after UFC 304

And New. And Still.

That’s how Saturday’s twin championship fights at UFC 304 concluded in Manchester, England, with a new titleholder emerging in the welterweight division, while the interim heavyweight strap remained in British possession, leaving plenty to discuss as the dust settles and the direction for each weight class becomes clearer.

Belal Muhammad did exactly what he said he was going to do in the main event, taking the fight to champion Leon Edwards from the outset to instantly put the Renegade MMA standout in an early hole that he was never able to climb out of during the remainder of the fight.

He pressured immediately and only let off in the sporadic moments where Edwards had success countering in the grappling exchanges and wrestling to top position. While there is seldom visible physical damage to point to on his opponents, the look on the dejected former titleholder’s face told you all you needed to know about the battered spirit and crushed hopes the new champion left him with after their 25 minutes inside the Octagon.

In the co-main event, Tom Aspinall continued to make his case for being the best heavyweight on the planet, stopping Curtis Blaydes in a minute flat to retain the interim heavyweight title he claimed in similar fashion last November at Madison Square Garden.

The classy everyman champion was light on his feet and swift with his movements, successfully dealing with a couple good, clean shots from the challenger in their early exchanges before sitting Blaydes down with a hard left inside that kicked off the finishing sequence. There was no hesitation from Aspinall once he saw his opening, as the ultra-talented man from Atherton quickly pounced and pounded out the finish, earning the victory he needed to put their first encounter completely behind him and take another step towards establishing himself as the top man in the heavyweight ranks.

So now what?

Belal Muhammad

UFC CEO Dana White indicated at his post-event media availability that an immediate rematch between Muhammad and Edwards wasn’t a priority. The new champion even quipped that he would make Edwards wait the same three years before facing him again, just as Edwards had done to him following their initial meeting, which ended in a no-contest.

Holding off on an immediate rematch likely means that Shavkat Rakhmonov is up next, which is both exciting and a little bit curious.

The exciting part is that Rakhmonov is an unbeaten standout pegged as a future contender from the minute he touched down in the UFC, and the decision to not force him through the kind of gauntlet that most emerging contenders are required to navigate to finally merit a championship opportunity is a step in the right direction for the promotion.

But at the same time, the 29-year-old hasn’t fought since December, when he submitted Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson, and would stand out even more as a contender if he had even one more victory over someone in the Top 10 beyond the now 41-year-old Thompson.

If given the option of having Rakhmonov be required to beat a myriad established names before getting a championship opportunity the way Muhammad did and shot-gunning him into the next title fight, I’m taking the former every single time, without pause, but I do understand the pushback that is likely to come from the more casual contingent that isn’t as familiar with his handiwork and would be more sold on him as a championship threat if there were one more marquee victory on his resume.

All that being said, this would be a tremendous matchup and a massive test on both sides, as Muhammad’s pressure and pace would be something completely new for Rakhmonov to deal with inside the Octagon, while the challenger’s diverse array of offensive weapons make him a formidable threat to the new champion’s position on the welterweight throne.

Tom Aspinall

It should be Jon Jones.

With all due respect to Stipe Miocic, who is a two-time UFC heavyweight champion, arguably the greatest heavyweight in UFC history, and a genuinely good dude that missed out on a massive opportunity through no fault of his own last November when Jones got injured and their fight got scuttled, it takes some serious effort to make a case for the 41-year-old still being next in line to face Jones when you’ve got a guy like Aspinall waiting in the wings.

Aspinall made his UFC debut three weeks before Miocic registered his last victory inside the Octagon, and in the nearly four years since, the British standout has amassed a 7-1 record with seven finishes, an interim title win and successful title defense, and spent 364 days away from competition recovering from a major knee injury.

Miocic has fought once, losing to Francis Ngannou by knockout in March 2021.

Aspinall should be facing Jones at Madison Square Garden in November. Period.

Of course, that’s not the plan.

The plan is to go ahead with the delayed bout between Jones and Miocic, and then hope that the winner is interested in sticking around to fight the agile and dangerous interim champ in a title unification tilt. Unfortunately for everyone involved, this feels much more likely to play out the same way things did at middleweight when Robert Whittaker picked up the interim title and was promoted to being undisputed champion after Georges St-Pierre bested Michael Bisping and returned to living his best life in retirement.

Aspinall proposed a twin bill at MSG later this year, suggesting he face off with Alex Pereira in one fight ahead of the presumptive main event between Jones and Miocic, and while it does have an undeniable appeal, the best course of action is to wait on that fight because it should 100 percent be a pay-per-view main event and might be the most intriguing option out there for him if things play out the way most anticipate they will in November.

As much as Aspinall wants to stay active and everyone understandably wants to see him compete, pausing to see how things shake out between Jones and Miocic — while being ready to replace either if one is unable to go — seems like the best course of action for now.

Paddy Pimblett

There is no more room to question whether “Paddy the Baddy” is capable of being a ranked lightweight in the UFC, as the beloved Scouser swiftly made King Green pay for a poorly executed takedown attempt, putting the veteran to sleep with a triangle choke midway through the opening round of their main card matchup.

Pimblett looked big standing opposite Green and frustrated the Inland Empire representative with his length, prompting him to take a naked shot that was stuff and left him scrambling from his knees, which opened the door for the opportunity the 29-year-old needed to finish.

The former Cage Warriors standout is now 6-0 in the UFC and riding an eight-fight winning streak overall, while instantly putting less-than-stellar efforts against Jared Gordon and Tony Ferguson in the rearview by making quick work of Green.

In his post-fight interview with Daniel Cormier, a deservedly chuffed Pimblett called for a matchup with Renato Moicano that instantly set MMA Twitter atwitter, but there is a different Brazilian that comes to mind as a more logical — and currently unbooked — dance partner for Liverpool’s favourite fighting son.

While Moicano is already penciled in to face Benoit Saint Denis in what is sure to be a violent and entertaining five-round lightweight fixture when the UFC returns to Paris in September, former champion Rafael Dos Anjos has an opening in his schedule and profiles as a wise next test for Pimblett.

Though he’ll turn 40 towards the end of October and is currently on a two-fight skid, “RDA” is a divisional stalwart with an established reputation; the exact type of fighter that would help further burnish Pimblett’s bonafides if he were to beat him. Despite his age, Dos Anjos is still a tough out for anyone in the division, as proven by his competitive bout with Mateusz Gamrot earlier this year, and represents a step up in competition from Green.

As entertaining as a bout between Pimblett and Moicano would undoubtedly be, “Paddy the Baddy” said he’d like to get back in there before the year is out, and chances are Moicano won’t come away from Paris unscathed. So hustle the Next Generation MMA man in there with RDA instead, and see if Pimblett can pick up another victory and keep climbing the divisional ranks.

Quick hitters for the rest of the winners…

Here’s a look at some potential matchups for the rest of the fighters to emerge victorious at UFC 304 at Co-op Live in Manchester.

Gregory Rodrigues: “Robocop” asked for a matchup with a ranked opponent, but do you know what might be even better? A matchup with Bo Nickal, who is overdue for a step up in competition.

Arnold Allen: The British featherweight snapped a two-fight skid with a win over Giga Chikadze, and matches up nicely with former interim champ Yair Rodriguez as a pair of top-five talents looking to maintain a place in the championship conversation.

Nathaniel Wood: Now 4-1 since moving to the 145-pound ranks, a matchup between Wood and Sodiq Yusuff would be a tremendous technical striking battle and show whether “The Prospect” merits a spot in the rankings.

Jake Hadley: If he’s sticking around at bantamweight for the foreseeable future, something about the pairing of Hadley and Dublin-based Canadian Brad Katona just makes sense to me.

Modestas Bukauskas: As solid as Bukauskas has been in his second tour of duty with the UFC, something tells me he ends up getting positioned in front of an unproven, but compelling prospect like Ibo Aslan next.

Oban Elliott: “The Welsh Gangster” earned a second consecutive UFC victory and would be a compelling opponent for Canadian Mike Malott if (when?) the promotion returns to The Great White North later this year.

Bruna Brasil: The Fighting Nerds representative looked outstanding against local favourite Molly McCann. Her length and diverse striking makes her an intriguing opponent for veteran Tecia Pennington.

Muhammad Mokaev: Should the UFC opt to bring the unbeaten flyweight back now that he’s fought out his contract, a No. 1 contender bout with Brandon Royval is the fight to make. White did, however, say of Mokaev’s free agency: “I think the PFL’s going to get a great undefeated guy. Good luck to him.”

Sam Patterson: With consecutive first-round submission wins since moving to welterweight, Patterson has been looking sharp, and a pairing with fellow prospect Gabriel Bonfim would be an outstanding litmus test for the Team Crossface representative.

Mick Parkin: There is still no reason to rush the promising Parkin, so a matchup with action-averse fellow Dana White’s Contender Series grad Martin Buday would be a reasonable next step for the unbeaten 28-year-old heavyweight.

Shauna Bannon: “Mama B” registered her first UFC victory on Saturday, and should face someone with a similar level of experience next; perhaps someone like Josephine Knutsson?

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